Is real estate a good inflation hedge?

UK inflation as measured by the Consumer Prices Index has hit 3.2% this year, the highest since March 2012. What's more, it's forecast to reach as much as 5% in the next 18 months.

In this article, we’ll explore the effects on inflation on the UK property market, and whether UK residential property is a good investment in a high-inflation environment.

Real estate inflation 2021: what you need to know

Like practically every other aspect of our lives since March 2020, the economy has been anything but normal of late. At present, we’re witnessing an inflation spike that can be attributed to the impact of Covid-19 on the economy - or more specifically, our lightning-fast return to normality following eighteen months of lockdowns and uncertainty.

Many of us are back in the office. Travel is beginning to open up at levels unseen since before the first lockdown, and the hospitality sector is in full swing once again. However, quantitative easing measures to counteract debts incurred during the shutdown of the economy mean that inflation - an increase in the cost of goods and services - is causing the prices of everything from our weekly grocery shop to concert tickets to increase.

But is there a way to beat inflation or perhaps even benefit from it? Over the years, investors have considered certain assets as some of the best investments for inflation. These include premium bonds, precious metals and - yes, you guessed it - real estate.

Does real estate do well in inflation?

Property investment is a good hedge against inflation for a variety of reasons. Firstly, inflation has a positive effect on debt. House prices generally rise over time, and inflation causes them to leap more quickly than usual. This ultimately lowers the loan-to-value of any outstanding mortgage debts and acts as a natural discount of sorts. While fixed-rate mortgage payments remain the same, the equity on the property actually increases. In real terms, this means your property is worth significantly more than what you originally agreed to pay for it by the time your mortgage is repaid.

What happens to property during inflation?

If you’re a buy-to-let investor, inflation can help improve your rental income. As a general rule, rental yields generally rise in tandem with property prices. If you’re in a position to increase rental charges while keeping your fixed-rate mortgage the same, this creates an opportunity for higher rental yields.

Real estate is a good hedge against the effects of inflation because property values tend to appreciate over time. In times of economic uncertainty, property values are generally resilient, too. Take the 2008 global financial crisis as an example: while the property bubble may have burst, prices returned to pre-recession levels in less than a decade. As a source of recurring rental income, and as a means of keeping pace with or even exceeding inflation, property investment is easily one of the best ways to hedge.

What does inflation do to property prices?

Property prices generally increase during periods of inflation, often eclipsing the overall rate of inflation. For example, house prices increased by 11 percent between August 2020 and August 2021, while the actual consumer price inflation rate currently sits at 4 percent. Real estate has traditionally been considered as an inflation hedge by investors, both directly (outright purchase) or indirectly (as part of a hedge fund). If you’re purchasing a property with financing, the best way to benefit from real estate inflation in 2021 is to lock in a fixed-rate, low-interest mortgage to allow you to witness the appreciation of your assets as much as possible.

Real estate inflation 2021: will my ability to sell a property be impacted?

Because inflation affects the price of all goods and services, many would-be first-time buyers can find it difficult to save enough for a deposit during these periods. With many potential buyers being priced out of the market, it can be difficult to sell property during times of inflation.

On average, first-time buyers are expected to raise a deposit of 20 percent of a property’s value before lenders will consider financing a mortgage. However, the impact of inflation over the past year means that a 20 percent deposit equates to 113 percent of the average homebuyers’ typical wage. In real terms, this means that almost £23,000 has been added to the cost of the average home in just twelve months, with average house prices now sitting at almost £248,750.

However, an inability for many would-be homeowners to raise capital to fund property purchases means that the rental market remains healthy. At the same time, inflation generally drives up the cost of rent. The trade-off here is that while you might find it more difficult to sell tangible assets, you’ll be able to enjoy an improvement rental yield.

Conclusion

Tangible assets like property are some of the best investments for inflation, particularly if your portfolio is put to use in the rental sector. Whether you’re experienced in property investment or considering becoming a buy-to-let landlord for the first time, real estate inflation in 2021 could provide you with an opportunity to enjoy a rapid increase in property prices while you concurrently benefit from higher rental yields.

Why not sign up to PropertyData today – you can explore our site during the 14 day free trial, during which you’ll have access to up-to-date local data, opportunities to buy unmodernised properties, information on areas of the UK with the highest rental yields and much more.

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Transparent data promise

Where does the raw data come from?

Property listings seen on rightmove.co.uk, zoopla.co.uk and onthemarket.com.

How often is the data updated?

The data is updated in near real-time.

What time period does the data cover?

This is a real-time market snapshot - the data covers currently listed properties. Once properties are removed from the portal, they are soon removed from this tab.

How is the raw data processed?

Duplicates from multiple sources are matched and reconciled as far as possible. Listings with obvious errors, where price or number or bedrooms appear out of range, are discarded.

What are the statistics used?

Averages shown are the interquartile mean, a type of average that is insensitive to outliers while being its own distinct parameter. The 80% range means that 80% of the listed properties fall inside this range.

Where does the raw data come from?

Property listings seen on rightmove.co.uk, zoopla.co.uk and onthemarket.com.

How do you know the square footage of properties?

We use proprietary technology to read the square footage of properties from agent floorplans. Although we cannot determine the square footage for all properties, we can usually get sufficient coverage. Agents are sometimes known to inflate square footage, and this should be borne in mind as a weakness of this data.

How often is the data updated?

The data is updated in near real-time.

What time period does the data cover?

This is a real-time market snapshot - the data covers currently listed properties. Once properties are removed from the portal, they are soon removed from this tab.

How is the raw data processed?

Duplicates from multiple sources are matched and reconciled as far as possible. Listings with obvious errors, where price or number or bedrooms appear out of range, are discarded.

What are the statistics used?

The average shown is the interquartile mean, a type of average that is insensitive to outliers while being its own distinct parameter. The 80% range means that 80% of the listed properties fall inside this range.

Where does the raw data come from?

Property "price paid" data provided by the Land Registry.

How often is the data updated?

Once per month when released by the Land Registry, typically towards the end of each calendar month covering up to the end of the previous calendar month.

What time period does the data cover?

You can customise the time period using the filter at the top of the view. The default time period is up to 9 months back from today's date. The latest data covers the period up to 2022-03-31, although some sales that took place before this date may still be added in the coming months.

How is the raw data processed?

No additional processes are applied to this data.

What are the statistics used?

Averages shown are the interquartile mean, a type of average that is insensitive to outliers while being its own distinct parameter. The 80% range means that 80% of the listed properties fall inside this range.

Where does the raw data come from?

Property "price paid" data provided by the Land Registry, and Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) data provided by Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government.

How do you know the square footage of properties?

We match the Land Registry data to EPC data provided by the MCHLG. Due to the fact that not all properties sold have had an EPC and vagaries of addressing in the UK, we are not able to determine the square footage of all properties, but we can usually get sufficient coverage.

How often is the data updated?

The private paid data is updated once per month when released by the Land Registry, typically towards the end of each calendar month covering up to the end of the previous calendar month. The energy performance certificate database is updated monthly.

What time period does the data cover?

You can customise the time period using the filter at the top of the view. The default time period is up to 9 months back from today's date. The latest data covers the period up to 2022-03-31, although some sales that took place before this date may still be added in the coming months.

How is the raw data processed?

No additional processes are applied to this data.

What are the statistics used?

The average shown is the interquartile mean, a type of average that is insensitive to outliers while being its own distinct parameter. The 80% range means that 80% of the listed properties fall inside this range.

Where does the raw data come from?

Property listings seen on rightmove.co.uk, zoopla.co.uk and onthemarket.com.

How often is the data updated?

The data is updated in near real-time.

What time period does the data cover?

This is a real-time market snapshot - the data covers currently listed properties. Once properties are removed from the portal, they are soon removed from this tab.

How is the raw data processed?

Duplicates from multiple sources are matched and reconciled as far as possible. Listings with obvious errors, where price or number or bedrooms appear out of range, are discarded.

What are the statistics used?

The average shown is the interquartile mean, a type of average that is insensitive to outliers while being its own distinct parameter. The 80% range means that 80% of the listed properties fall inside this range.

Where does the raw data come from?

Room let listings on SpareRoom, the UK's biggest room letting website.

How often is the data updated?

The data is updated in near real-time.

What time period does the data cover?

This is a real-time market snapshot - the data covers currently listed properties. Once properties are removed from SpareRoom, they are soon removed from this tab.

How is the raw data processed?

Listings with obvious errors, where price or number or bedrooms appear out of range, are discarded.

What are the statistics used?

The average shown is the interquartile mean, a type of average that is insensitive to outliers while being its own distinct parameter. The 80% range means that 80% of the listed properties fall inside this range.

Where does the raw data come from?

Property listings seen on rightmove.co.uk, zoopla.co.uk and onthemarket.com.

How often is the data updated?

The data is updated in near real-time.

What time period does the data cover?

This is a real-time market snapshot - the data covers currently listed properties. Once properties are removed from the portal, they are soon removed from this tab.

How is the raw data processed?

Duplicates from multiple sources are matched and reconciled as far as possible. Listings with obvious errors, where price or number or bedrooms appear out of range, are discarded. Yields are calculated by comparing only properties with the same number of bedrooms, e.g. 3-bedroom properties for rent with 3-bedroom properties for sale.

What is the yield calculation used?

The calculation used is (average_weekly_asking_rent * 52 / average_asking_price), expressed as a percentage. It is a top-line gross yield, meaning no expenses are considered.

What are the statistics used?

The average shown is the interquartile mean, a type of average that is insensitive to outliers while being its own distinct parameter. The 80% range means that 80% of the listed properties fall inside this range.

Where does the raw data come from?

Property listings seen on rightmove.co.uk, zoopla.co.uk and onthemarket.com.

How often is the data updated?

The data is updated in near real-time.

What time period does the data cover?

This is a real-time market snapshot - the data covers currently listed properties. Once properties are removed from Zoopla, Rightmove or Spareroom, they are soon removed from this tab.

How is the raw data processed?

Duplicates from multiple sources are matched and reconciled as far as possible. Yields are calculated by comparing only properties with the same number of bedrooms, e.g. 3-bedroom properties for rent with 3-bedroom properties for sale. For the SpareRoom data, hypothetical properties consisting of two to six average double rooms with shared bathrooms are used to derived average rent. For all sources, listings with obvious errors, where price or number or bedrooms appear out of range, are discarded.

What is the yield calculation used?

The calculation used is (average_weekly_asking_rent * 52 / average_asking_price), expressed as a percentage. It is a top-line gross yield, meaning no expenses are considered.

What are the statistics used?

The average shown is the interquartile mean, a type of average that is insensitive to outliers while being its own distinct parameter. The 80% range means that 80% of the listed properties fall inside this range.

Where does the raw data come from?

Property "price paid" data provided by the Land Registry.

How often is the data updated?

Once per month when released by the Land Registry, typically towards the end of each calendar month covering up to the end of the previous calendar month.

Zoopla Zed-index

What time period does the data cover?

The data covers transactions in the last six years

How is the raw data processed?

No additional processes are applied to this data.

What are the statistics used?

The average shown is the interquartile mean, a type of average that is insensitive to outliers while being its own distinct parameter. The 80% range means that 80% of the listed properties fall inside this range.

Where does the raw data come from?

Property listings seen on rightmove.co.uk, zoopla.co.uk and onthemarket.com.

How often is the data updated?

The listings data is updated in near real-time. The Land Registry data is updated once per month when released, typically towards the end of each calendar month covering up to the end of the previous calendar month.

What time period does the data cover?

The price paid data shown goes back to January 2015. The listings data is a real-time market snapshot - the data covers currently listed properties. Once properties are removed from the portal, they are soon removed from this tab.

How is the raw data processed?

Duplicates from multiple sources are matched and reconciled as far as possible. Listings with obvious errors, where price or number or bedrooms appear out of range, are discarded.

What are the calculations used?

Average sales per month are for the last 3 finalised months. Turnover is average sales per month divided by total for sale. Inventory is 100 divided by turnover.

Where does the raw data come from?

Property listings seen on rightmove.co.uk, zoopla.co.uk and onthemarket.com.

How often is the data updated?

The listings data is updated in near real-time. The Land Registry data is updated once per month when released, typically towards the end of each calendar month covering up to the end of the previous calendar month.

What time period does the data cover?

This is a real-time market snapshot - the data covers currently listed properties. Once properties are removed from the portal, they are soon removed from this tab.

How is the raw data processed?

Duplicates from multiple sources are matched and reconciled as far as possible. Listings with obvious errors, where price or number or bedrooms appear out of range, are discarded.

Where does the raw data come from?

We receive data on the extent and corporate ownership of all land titles in England & Wales from the Land Registry.

How often is the data updated?

The data is updated once per month when released, typically in the first few days of each calendar month.

What time period does the data cover?

This is an ownership snapshot - the data represents ownership as recorded by the Land Registry at the last monthly export.

How is the raw data processed?

No additional processes are applied to this data.

Where does the raw data come from?

We source different expert forecasts Savills, Knight Frank, OBR

How often is the data updated?

The data is updated annually when new forecasts are released, typically towards the beginning of the year.

How is the raw data processed?

We calculate a consensus forecast using a simple mean average.